70,000 Dead in Gaza Loom Over Tight Israeli Election

More than 70,000 Palestinians died in the Gaza war that began after the October 2023 attacks. That toll now anchors a parliamentary election held on Tuesday, where polls indicate a narrow gap between the two main camps. The contest is less an ideological split than a direct referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has held office for 19 of the last 30 years.

Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, leads the opposition bloc. His party, Yashar, promotes US-style term limits for the prime minister. At a rally in Modi'in, supporters praised his direct style. Noa Sadeh, 56, said she is tired of politicians who only talk and wants a leader who acts. Eisenkot’s group includes former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, both of whom previously served with Netanyahu before breaking with him.

On the far right, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party frames the vote as a correction of Netanyahu’s perceived drift to the left. Yishai Fleisher told voters in Bet Shemesh that the current government must be pulled further right. He proposed expanding settlements in the West Bank and Gaza, creating a ministry to manage the voluntary departure of Palestinians, and implementing the death penalty.

Netanyahu’s campaign uses a rhyming slogan contrasting Yamin, the right, with Falastin, Palestine. He places opposition leaders next to heads of parties representing Palestinian citizens, who make up about one-fifth of the population. The central question for the anti-Netanyahu bloc is whether they can form a majority without relying heavily on mainly Arab parties, a move that pro-Netanyahu media have attacked.

Observers note a puzzle in the close polling. Netanyahu faces criticism for the deadly October 7, 2023, attacks, the failure to eradicate Hamas in Gaza, and an ongoing corruption trial. His allies claim intelligence chiefs hid the threat of the attack from him, a narrative they promote despite lack of evidence. His durability rests on a loyal base built over three decades and his skill in building coalitions.

Many liberal expatriates are returning to vote in person. Pollsters do not count this group, and their participation could decide the outcome if the result hinges on a single one of the 120 Knesset seats. A state ceremony marking the 1995 assassination of Yitzhak Rabin took place on Thursday. Netanyahu sent a low-ranking minister in his place. Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats, expressed optimism about forming a regional strategic process for security.

A video circulating this week shows young Israelis singing Shir LaShalom at a music festival in the Negev. The song was performed by Rabin before his assassination. The full flights home and the renewed interest in that song suggest to some that the era of Netanyahu may be ending.