Israel’s Two Major Blocs Miss Majority Mark, Leaving Future Government in Limbo

Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future now hinges on the willingness of opposition leaders to ally with Palestinian parties after both major Jewish blocs fell short of the 61 Knesset seats required for a governing majority. As of Wednesday, with 70% of votes counted, the prime minister’s camp held a slight lead over the opposition bloc led by retired general Gadi Eisenkot. This result left the opposition without a clear path to power unless they formed a coalition with the Joint List and Raam, which are projected to win between 16 and 19 seats.

The election saw a record turnout of 77.7%, the highest since 1999. The vote drew large numbers of serving military members, a demographic that has historically favored right-wing candidates. However, the composition of the current reservist force may alter that traditional trend, as many older, more moderate soldiers are currently on active duty. The final tally of these absentee ballots could take several more days to complete, keeping the political outcome in suspense.

Gadi Eisenkot, leading the opposition, initially declared a victory for a “Zionist majority” overnight. That stance appeared to rule out a broad coalition with Arab Israeli parties. Yair Golan, leader of the centre-left Democrats within Eisenkot’s bloc, pushed back against this narrow definition. Golan argued on social media that the opposition must stop fearing partnership with Palestinian citizens. He criticized the ruling party for relying on ultra-Orthodox parties that are non-Zionist and oppose conscription, while dismissing Arab votes.

Yousef Jabareen, the leader of the Joint List, stated that the party’s strong performance meant it could not be ignored in any political scenario. He accused the current government, specifically national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, of making life difficult for Arab citizens. Jabareen declared the Joint List ready to help remove the government of Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from office. Another official in the party framed the choice facing Jewish leaders as a decision between supremacy and building democracy.

Donald Trump claimed credit for Netanyahu’s improved performance, stating that his public endorsement during the campaign helped the prime minister. Trump described the emerging result as heading toward a stalemate or a narrow Netanyahu win. Meanwhile, political commentator Noa Landau argued in Haaretz that Eisenkot had fallen into a trap set by the prime minister. Landau contended that Eisenkot’s focus on Zionism as a test for coalition partners excluded necessary allies, while Netanyahu had not imposed the same restriction.

President Isaac Herzog will now decide which party leader receives a six-week mandate to form a government. If the first attempt fails, the opportunity will pass to the rival leader. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot are expected to seek defectors from the opposing camp during this period. Netanyahu will remain in office as a caretaker until a new majority is formed. He may benefit if the deadlock leads to another round of elections, as tens of thousands of diaspora Israelis who voted against the current coalition may not return for a subsequent vote.

The election took place while Israel faces accusations of genocide in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister with 19 of the past 30 years in office, is also wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes. The campaign included Netanyahu posting an image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv just before voting began. Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, Israel has killed more than 74,000 Palestinians in Gaza, fought Hezbollah in Lebanon, occupied new territory in Syria, and launched a war with the United States against Iran.