Democrats Secure Largest Midterm Margin Since 1974
The party captured an estimated 259 House seats on a 12-point national vote advantage, setting the stage for new leadership in key early primary states.
By Ana Castro ·
The 2026 midterm elections produced the largest margin of victory for one party in a midterm cycle since 1974.
Democrats are on track to win an estimated 259 seats in the House of Representatives. With more votes still being counted, particularly in California, House Democratic candidates have captured 55.3% of the national vote. Republicans secured 43.3% of the total. This 12-point gap exceeds the Democratic margins from 2008 and 2018, as well as the Republican advantages seen in 1994, 2010, and 2014.
The shift was most pronounced in districts previously classified as competitive. NBC News analysts Ben Kamisar, Sarah Sternhagen, and Stephen Pettigrew examined 21 of the 28 battleground districts where at least 95% of the expected vote is in. In those areas, the average margin moved nearly 17 percentage points toward Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential results. The largest swings occurred in South Texas, where a surge in Latino voter support helped drive major congressional victories.
These electoral gains position newly elected Democrats to become power brokers in the 2028 presidential race. Five of the six states that lead the Democratic primary calendar in two years elected new Democratic governors or senators on Tuesday. In some of these states, Democrats won statewide offices for the first time in decades. Their endorsements will likely serve as major signals for voters.
South Carolina stands out as a key example. Annie Andrews became the first Democrat elected to the state Senate since 1998. The Democratic National Committee designated South Carolina as the first state on the 2028 presidential primary calendar in August. Historically, the support of Rep. James Clyburn has influenced primary outcomes there. He is credited with helping President Joe Biden secure victory in 2020. Andrews may now join Clyburn as a leading voice for the party in the state.
Jamie Harrison, former chair of the Democratic National Committee and the South Carolina Democratic Party, noted the attention Andrews will receive. He told NBC News on Wednesday that he told Andrews she would be extremely popular with 2028 candidates. Harrison said Andrews started laughing when he mentioned it, but he predicted she will indeed be a sought-after figure.
The election results also affected other major races. Democrats gained control of the Senate, which complicates President Trump's ability to extend his record of judicial appointments, including three Supreme Court justices. Additionally, state Sen. Nathan Johnson won the Texas attorney general race, unseating Republican Ken Paxton. In California, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom commuted all death sentences in the state.
