CJ Carr leads Heisman chase after Irish beat top-ranked Miami

CJ Carr moved into first place in the Heisman Trophy market on Sunday, holding +190 odds to win the award. This shift occurred after Notre Dame defeated the No. 1 ranked Miami Hurricanes 31-24 on Saturday. The victory marked a major upset in the College Football Playoff landscape, as four teams from the top 10 poll lost their Week 10 games.

The loss for Miami represents a historic stumble. It is the first time since 1990 that the AP poll leader has dropped four games during the regular season. A team ranked in the top two has now lost in five straight weeks, a streak that ties the longest run in both AP and CFP history. The result also broke a six-year cycle for Notre Dame, which last beat a No. 1 opponent in 2020 during its sole year as a full-time ACC member.

Carr completed 29 of 40 passes for 319 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He joins a short list of FBS quarterbacks who have thrown for at least 300 yards and three scores without a pick against the nation's top team in the past 30 years. The previous four players to achieve this feat were Will Howard, Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Deshaun Watson. None of those quarterbacks won the Heisman, though they did not all achieve the stat line during the regular season.

The Irish are now -4000 odds to reach the College Football Playoff, with only Georgia at -9000 holding better odds. Georgia holds the No. 1 spot in both the AP and CFP rankings. Notre Dame secures an automatic berth if it finishes in the top 12 of the CFP. The Irish have three games left, including home contests against Boston College and SMU, and a road trip to Syracuse.

A structural disadvantage works against Carr’s candidacy. Notre Dame does not play a conference championship game, so Carr will miss the final regular-season showcase before votes are due on Dec. 7. That date falls on the Monday after the national championship game. Notre Dame has not won a Heisman since Tim Brown in 1987. The last Irish quarterback to win the award was John Huarte in 1964, and no player from the program has finished in the top three since Brady Quinn in 2006.

Darian Mensah of Miami remains the second favorite at +250 odds, up from +170 before the game. The Hurricanes' offense struggled in the absence of wideout Malachi Toney, who will miss the rest of the season and the ACC title game. Mensah completed just 55.8% of his passes, a season low, and had 19 incompletions. Miami plays Duke, Virginia Tech, and Boston College in its remaining schedule, offering limited opportunities for a signature performance.

Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith fell to +280 odds after the Buckeyes lost 41-28 at home to Oregon. This is Ohio State's second consecutive double-digit defeat and third loss of the season, effectively ending its playoff hopes. Smith caught seven passes for 133 yards and a touchdown in the loss. The injury to quarterback Julian Sayin in the Oct. 17 win at Indiana has derailed the team's season and likely Smith's award chances.

Devon Dampier of Utah made the largest jump in the market, moving from +10000 to +1500. The Utes defeated BYU 28-20 to end a three-game losing streak in the Holy War. Dampier threw for 177 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 87 yards and two scores. Utah is now 15 games in a row with a win and holds a 17-game streak of scoring at least two touchdowns. The Utes are -700 to make the playoff but face No. 22 Arizona on Saturday before playing TCU and West Virginia. Alex Smith's fourth-place finish in 2004 remains the best Heisman result for a Utah player.

Gunner Stockton of Georgia sits at +2700 odds despite leading the new No. 1 team. His position raises questions about whether his individual statistics are strong enough to close the gap on Carr, Mensah, or Dampier in the final weeks of the season.