Yamal leads field for 2026 Ballon d'Or as London ceremony approaches
Data models and bookmakers disagree on the favorite, while players point to World Cup success and goal totals to support their picks.
By Gabriela Ivanov ·
Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, and Harry Kane are the three names most associated with the 2026 Ballon d'Or. The winner will be announced at the London Palladium in less than a day. The award recognizes football's most prestigious individual achievement for the 2025-26 season.
Forecasts are divided on who will take the prize. Avisia, a French data analysis firm, rates Yamal as the favorite with a 23 percent probability. Harry Kane sits second at 21 percent. Mbappe is third at 19 percent, tied with 2024 winner Rodri. Lionel Messi holds an 18 percent chance of a record-extending ninth title. Bookmakers present a different picture, making Kane the outright favorite with odds implying a 70 percent chance of winning.
Players and managers have voiced their own preferences. Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone supports Messi, who recently retired from international duty. Simeone noted that Messi played at a high level after the World Cup despite his age. Jude Bellingham endorsed Kane, describing him as honest and hard-working. Anthony Gordon backed Yamal, calling his teammate on a different level. Real Madrid's Aurelien Tchouameni supported Mbappe, citing an incredible season for the Frenchman.
Statistical arguments favor Mbappe and Kane. Mbappe was La Liga's top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League's leading marksman with 15. He also took the World Cup Golden Boot and set a record for the most World Cup goals with 12. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the most by any player since Lionel Messi scored 82 in 2011-12.
Trophies complicate the cases for Mbappe and Kane. Mbappe did not win a major team trophy with his club or country. Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but finished third with England at the World Cup. Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona. His season was affected by injury, resulting in lower personal statistics than his rivals.
Historical data favors candidates with major silverware. Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to win the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship, or Copa America in the year they were honored. A win for Yamal would make him the youngest recipient in the award's history. The current record belongs to Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.
