Goldknopf's Three Seats and Bennett's Position Could Decide Israel's Next Coalition

Political assessments circulated before the election suggest that Agudat Yisrael and Naftali Bennett hold the decisive power to form Israel's next government.

Yitzhak Goldknopf leads Agudat Yisrael, a haredi faction that currently holds three seats in the Knesset. Establishments in the political sector believe his party could provide backing to an opposition-led cabinet in exchange for budgetary agreements. Such a deal would not necessarily eliminate the need for votes from Arab parties to reach a majority.

Discussions between Agudat Yisrael and the change bloc are not new. Maariv reported in August that the faction was exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. These talks occurred amid internal friction within United Torah Judaism, specifically between Agudat Yisrael and Degel Hatorah. The two parties disagreed on the haredi military draft and relations with Benjamin Netanyahu. Agudat Yisrael expressed disappointment with the coalition's behavior, while Degel Hatorah signaled a lack of confidence in the prime minister. Rabbi Dov Lando also sent a letter expressing reservations about maintaining commitments to the Likud-led bloc.

Goldknopf faces a challenge from his voter base, which largely identifies with the Right. Assessments indicate that visible support for a change bloc government could push his supporters toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit.

Attention also turns to Naftali Bennett, the former prime minister. If neither bloc wins the 61 seats required for a Knesset majority, Bennett could join a Netanyahu-led government. Political circles view this as a remote scenario but note that Bennett is the only change bloc leader with a Right-wing background capable of taking such a step. The move would require him to shift his base of support, a process complicated by the current makeup of his party.

Avigdor Liberman has also been mentioned as a potential bridge between the sides, given his history as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments hold that Liberman is unlikely to make such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister.

For now, these remain scenarios and political assessments rather than reached agreements. The election is scheduled to take place within less than a day.